SUN DAY Campaign: Highlights of EIA's Latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (June 10, 2025)
SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
(founded 1992)
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM EIA'S LATEST
"SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK"
(released June 10, 2025)
Notable Quote: “Carbon intensity falls modestly in both 2025 and 2026 as fuels with higher carbon content, such as coal, are used less relative to lower carbon fuels, such as renewable sources.”
EIA - Electricity/General: “We forecast that total U.S. electricity generation this summer will increase by 1%, compared with the summer of 2024, as a result of growing power demand from the commercial and industrial sectors. … We forecast that U.S. commercial electricity sector consumption will grow by 3% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026. In the previous STEO, we expected commercial electricity demand would grow by an annual average of 2% through 2026.”
EIA - Solar: “We expect U.S. solar generation this summer will grow by 33% (30 BKWh). … The Midwest is forecast to see an increase in solar generation this summer along with less natural gas generation. … Forecast natural gas generation in Texas falls this year in response to the growth in generation from new solar facilities and a smaller increase in wind generation.”
EIA - Hydropower: “Improving water supply in the western states leads to a forecast 6% increase (5 BkWh) in U.S. hydroelectric generation. … Natural gas generation in the Northwest drops in response to higher hydropower output because this area of the country has significant hydro resources.”
EIA - Biofuels: “We forecast a substantial drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel net imports in 2025 due to a change in the federal tax credit. … With imported biodiesel no longer receiving a federal tax credit, we expect a decrease in biodiesel imports and, consequently, net imports.”
EIA - Battery Storage: Between 2020 and 2024, battery storage capacity increased from 2-GW to 27-GW. In 2025, it is projected to expand to 46-GW and to reach 65-GW in 2026.
In 2025, wind is forecast to provide about 11.21% of U.S. electricity generation, followed by solar (6.84%), and hydro (5.95%). [see Figure 30 below] (Ed. Note: this is interpreted to mean utility-scale generation and not include distributed solar)
U.S. solar capacity 61,009 72,248 91,648 123,000 150,000 183,000
(megawatts)
U.S. wind capacity 132,629 141,275 147,600 152,000 159,000 168,000
(megawatts)
SUN DAY Campaign - editorial note: EIA’s STEO confirms the SUN DAY Campaign’s consistent forecast of the past three years: utility-scale solar capacity should approach that of wind by the end of 2025 and then surpass it in 2026. That does not include additional solar capacity provided by small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems, which may increase total solar capacity by about a third.
(Quadrillion Btu)
Energy Source 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Liquid biofuels 2.331 2.433 2.659 2.799 2.672 2.768
Wood biomass 1.989 2.029 1.863 1.811 1.906 1.962
Waste biomass 0.430 0.412 0.394 0.379 0.377 0.377
Wind power 1.289 1.481 1.436 1.546 1.619 1.728
Solar 0.627 0.764 0.878 1.098 1.384 1.632
Hydropower 0.858 0.869 0.836 0.826 0.865 0.923
Geothermal 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.117 0.117 0.117
EIA - Nuclear Power: Nuclear power is projected to decline from an 18.83% share of U.S. electricity generation in 2024 to 18.53% in 2025 and drop further to 18.47% in 2026
EIA - Natural Gas: “We expect that generation from U.S. natural gas-fired power plants between June and September 2025 will be 3% lower (23 BkWh) than the summer of 2024 because of higher natural gas prices and the continuing increase in new solar generating capacity. … We forecast that natural gas prices will be above last year’s levels for the remainder of 2025 and 2026.”
“Despite similar temperatures compared with last year, we expect the power sector will consume 3% less natural gas this summer than it did last summer. The drop in natural gas-fired generation largely reflects our expectation that natural gas prices will be higher this summer compared with last year. … The increasing availability of electricity generation from renewable sources also constrains growth in natural gas consumption beyond last year’s levels.”
EIA - Petroleum: “Domestic crude oil production reached an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline from that high through the end of 2026 as oil producers respond to lower prices … and declining rig count. … EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day this year and just below that amount in 2026.”
EIA - Coal: “We expect coal production to remain flat at 512 million short tons (MMst) in 2025 while coal consumption increases 4% to 428 MMst. … With rising consumption and flat production, we forecast that coal stocks in the electric power sector will fall to 113 MMst in 2025.”
*Coal’s share of utility-scale electrical generation will drop from 28.4% in 2018 to 16.24% in 2025 and decrease further to 14.90% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
Electricity Generation - All Sectors [Figure 30]
(billion kilowatt-hours)
Year Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Total RE-%
2020 1.522 0.768 0.790 0.284 0.337 0.089 0.027 3.854 19.12%
2021 1.477 0.892 0.780 0.250 0.378 0.115 0.029 3.958 19.50%
2022 1.583 0.826 0.772 0.254 0.434 0.143 0.030 4.074 21.13%
2023 1.700 0.671 0.775 0.244 0.421 0.165 0.023 4.029 21.17%
2024 1.759 0.648 0.782 0.241 0.453 0.217 0.022 4.151 22.48%
2025 1.698 0.688 0.785 0.252 0.475 0.290 0.024 4.237 24.57%
2026 1.720 0.646 0.801 0.269 0.506 0.350 0.022 4.337 26.45%
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CO2 Emissions:
EIA - CO2 Emissions: “We forecast U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to increase by around 1.2% in 2025, followed by a decrease of around 1.3% in 2026. Natural gas and petroleum products emissions increase by 1% in 2025 while coal emissions increase by 3%. Decreases in 2026 are associated with less consumption of all fossil fuels.”
Annual CO2 Emissions [Figure 40]
(million metric tons)
Energy Source 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Coal 876 1003 939 777 751 776 736
Petroleum 2044 2235 2250 2250 2231 2250 2233
Natural Gas 1653 1656 1744 1760 1787 1799 1793
Total Energy 4584 4906 4940 4795 4777 4832 4769
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