SUN DAY Campaign: Status Report - Geothermal (June 3, 2025)

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STATUS REPORT - GEOTHERMAL 
(June 3, 2025) 

 

 

U.S. NET ELECTRICAL GENERATION: 
(in gigawatt-hours GWh) 

 

January 1 – March 31, 2025:
4,077 - Total (0.37% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (May 22, 2025)

 

January 1 – December 31, 2024:
15,671 - Total (0.36% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2025)

 

January 1 – December 31, 2023: 
16,462 - Total (0.39% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV) 
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024)  

 

January 1 - December 31, 2022: 
16,087 - Total (0.37% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV) 
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024)  

 

January 1 - December 31, 2021: 
15,975 - Total (0.38% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV) 
Source: "Electric Power Annual," U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)  

 

January 1 - December 31, 2020: 
15,890 - Total (0.39% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV) 
Source: "Electric Power Annual," U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)  

 

January 1 - December 31, 2015: 
16,767 - Total (0.41% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV) 
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 25, 2016)  

 

January 1 - December 31, 2010: 
15,666 - Total (0.38% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)  
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (March xx, 2011)  

 

 

INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY: 
(Data are provided for only utility-scale installations - i.e., >1-MW) 

 

March 31, 2025:
4.20 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (May 8, 2025) https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-march-2025
 
December 31, 2024:
4.17 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 6, 2025) https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-december-2024
 
December 31, 2023: 
4.12 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 15, 2024)  
 
December 31, 2022: 
4.08 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 7, 2023)  

 

December 31, 2021: 
3.94 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (March 8, 2022)  

 

December 31, 2020: 
3.90 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 8, 2021)  

 

December 31, 2015: 
3.91 GW (0.33% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 2, 2016) 

 

December 31, 2010: 
3.30 GW (0.29% share of total available installed generating capacity) 
Source: "Energy Infrastructure Update," Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 4, 2011) 

 

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL CAPACITY FACTORS: 
(Capacity factors are a comparison of net generation with available capacity. They are available only for utility-scale installations.) 
Source: "Electric Power Monthly," U.S. Energy Information Administration (May 22, 2025)  
 
2024: (preliminary data)
65.0%

 

2023: 
69.4% 

 

2022:
69.0%  

 

2021:  
69.8%  

 

2020: 
69.1%  

 

2015: 
71.9%  

 

2010:  
71.9%  

 

 

NEAR-TERM GROWTH FORECASTS: 

 

U.S. Geological Survey: Geothermal energy in the Great Basin of Nevada and adjoining states could produce electricity equal to one-tenth of the current U.S. power supply. If sufficient technological advances to commercialize enhanced geothermal systems occur, then a current best provisional estimate for electric-power generation capacity of 135 gigawatts electric are available from the upper 6 kilometers of the Earth’s crust.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, “Enhanced Geothermal Systems Electric-Resource Assessment for the Great Basin, Southwestern United States” (May 22, 2025)

 

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission: Additions of utility-scale geothermal between April 2025 and March 2028 could total 201-MW with 92-MW deemed "high probability additions" and 0-MW of "retirements" forecast. High-probability additions alone would bring total utility-scale geothermal generating capacity to 4,290-MW by April 2028; geothermal would then account for ~0.30% of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.
Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Energy Infrastructure Update for March 2025," (May 8, 2025) 
 
U.S. Energy Information Administration: In 2025, U.S. geothermal electrical generating capacity is forecast remain unchanged from the 2024 level of 2,696-MW. It is projected to increase to 2,746-MW by the end of 2026.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (May 6, 2025)   

 

U.S. Energy Information Admministration: Electrical generation by geothermal (in billion kilowatt-hours) is forecast to decline from 16.0 BkWh in 2024 to 15.4 BkWh in 2025 but then rebound to 16.8 BkWh in 2026. It will continue to increase to 17.6 BkWh in 2027 and reach 22.6 BkWh by 2030.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Outlook 2025” (April 15, 2025)

 

U.S. Department of Energy: By 2035, there’s a chance for geothermal heating and cooling systems to be in the equivalent of 7 million homes - tripling the current U.S. capacity. This could mean $100–150 billion in investments.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff – Geothermal Heating & Cooling” (January 8, 2025)

 

U.S. Department of Energy: With the use of next-generation technologies, geothermal power has the potential to expand by more than 20 times from current U.S. installed capacity, contributing 90-GW of clean, firm power nationwide by 2050, and potentially significantly more.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power” (March 18, 2024)

 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Installing geothermal heat pumps in around 70% of U.S. buildings could save as much as 593 terawatt-hours of electricity generation annually (equivalent to about 15% of the current annual electricity demand in the United States) and avoid seven gigatons of carbon-equivalent emissions by 2050.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States” (November 1, 2023)

 

University of Michigan: Electricity generated from geothermal plants is projected to increase from 17 billion kWh in 2022 to 37.2 billion kWh in 2050.
Source: Center for Sustainable Systems, “Geothermal Energy Factsheet” (July 2023)

 

U.S. Department of Energy: The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model projects that the total amount of installed geothermal is 38.30 GWe in 2035 and 90.52 GWe in 2050. Geothermal technologies account for 1.94% of national generating capacity in 2035 and 3.94% in 2050. However, geothermal technologies make 6.13% of annual generation in 2035 and 12.04% in 2050, three times larger than its percentage of installed capacity. This is due to the high capacity factor of geothermal technologies.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office” (January 2023)

 

U.S. Department of Energy: Through technology improvements, geothermal electricity generation capacity has the potential to increase to more than 26 times current deployment by 2050. The potential exists for up to 60 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity, more than 17,000 district heating systems, and up to 28 million geothermal heat pumps.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet” (May - ??, 2019)

 

 

INSTALLATIONS:

 

U.S. Department of Energy: Current U.S. geothermal power generation nameplate capacity is 3,673-MW from 93 power plants. Of this capacity, 1,300-MW are located on public lands. California and Nevada contribute more than 90% of the current U.S. geothermal power generation, with additional contributions from plants in Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah. Geothermal companies operating in the United States have a combined 58 active developing projects and prospects across nine states, with a majority located in Nevada.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report” (July 13, 2021)

 

There are approximately 50,000 geothermal heat pumps installed in the United States each year.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (date - ??)

 

 

EMPLOYMENT:

 

U.S. Department of Energy: In 2023, 8,870 part- and full-time geothermal workers were employed in electric power generation (EPG). This represents an increase of 235 workers - or 2.7% - over 2022. These were distributed among multiple sectors: utilities (14%), construction (56%), manufacturing (3%), wholesale trade (5%), and professional & business services (21%).
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report” (August 28, 2024)

 

Geothermal Resources Council: Geothermal power plants employ about 1.17 persons per MW. Adding related governmental, administrative, and technical jobs, the number increases to 2.13.
Source: Geothermal Resource Council (date - ??)

 

 

COST: 

 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory: The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for geothermal ranges from $71/MWh to $106/MWh.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “2023 Electricity ATB (Annual Technology Baseline) Technologies and Data Overview” (July 23, 2024)

 

U.S. Energy Information Administration: The estimated (simple average) levelized cost of electricity for new geothermal resources entering service in 2028 is $37.30 (2022 dollars per megawatt-hour).
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Outlook” (March 16, 2023)

 

U.S. Department of Energy: The Enhanced Geothermal Shot initiative aims to lower the cost of EGS projects 90% to $45 per MWh by 2035. It said that capturing even a “small fraction” of the U.S.’s geothermal resources could power more than 40 million homes.  
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (September 8, 2022)  
 
Submitted by admin on Sun, 06/08/2025 - 22:26