Feb 1, 2025: AI on the Susquehanna River

Sep 29, 2024: The case against restarting Three Mile Island’s Unit-1


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KURTZWEIL: The truth about nuclear power in Northern Virginia

Youngkin has encouraged nuclear reactor production in Northern Virginia without telling the public the whole story


NUCLEAR IN VA:  https://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2024/11/kurtzweil-the-truth-about-nuclear-power-in-northern-virginia?utm_medium=email

November 24, 2024
 

Homer Simpson once said, “Lord, we're especially thankful for nuclear power, the cleanest, safest energy source there is … except for solar which is just a pipe dream.” Gov. Glenn Youngkin agreed — in July, at a press conference, he said something very similar and followed it up by recently facilitating a deal between Amazon and Dominion Energy that promises new nuclear power plants in Northern Virginia. While Youngkin has tried to frame these deals as a benefit for the economy and those in it, these plants will not actually be providing cheaper, cleaner energy for regular civilians. Instead, these are plans from which Youngkin stands to gain political capital and tax revenue. In short, Youngkin is trying to entice data centers to move to Northern Virginia for his own political gain, and presenting this to the taxpayer as a service to the citizen is deceiving.  

At best, Virginians will feel the effects of this project indirectly — the primary goal of this deal was to draw new data centers, particularly Amazon’s, to Northern Virginia. These large data centers require huge sources of electricity to remain operational, and placing them near neighborhoods without building new power plants would drive electricity costs for Virginians through the roof. Thus, the so-called “Data Center Alley” is forced to bring their own power into the area, which is what this new deal will work to do. 

Youngkin claims that these plants would help keep energy prices stable, but in reality, his real aim is to encourage more data centers to move into the area. While the goal of building the plants, the increase of data centers and the commitment to efficient energy sources are all laudable, the way that Youngkin has sold this idea to the public is misleading — most of the benefit will be felt by larger corporations.

In fact, the direct gains of these new plants may be nonexistent for the average Virginian. Youngkin signed a law in July allowing Dominion to use tax money to help pay for power plant construction. While it is a relatively insignificant amount of money for Virginians, it means that we are subsidizing a project that does not improve the quality of life in our communities. Even if it did help some Virginians, it would not help everyone — only the areas closest to the plants in the affluent northern area. Electricity is not being shipped across the state, and the plant’s jobs are not likely to draw workers from poorer areas of Virginia. Why should taxpayers pay for one large, wealthy company to build a power plant for another large, wealthy company? 

Conversely, if these plans show no tangible benefit that someone could see on their power bill, one might argue that there might be indirect reasons to build the nuclear plants like job creation. This idea would be reasonable in many areas — but not Northern Virginia. By state, Virginia has the 8th lowest unemployment rate in the United States. By county, Virginia’s most well-employed counties are concentrated in the North. Focusing on building up the low paying jobs in an already prosperous area is a ludicrous goal. If Youngkin was truly concerned with providing higher-paying jobs to poorer areas of Virginia, there are many better spots to build these plants than in Northern Virginia. His actions contradict his rhetoric, and Virginians should not be fooled.

In short, this plan is at best neutral and at worst harmful to employment rates in Virginia. But beyond that, Youngkin has also been misleading in how he describes the feasibility of the new construction. Nuclear energy is clean, efficient and safe — but in this case, it is not cheap and, thus, is not a sure thing. Youngkin has tended to focus on the future and bringing Virginia into the next generation of energy which requires making Virginian energy competitive. Rhetoric like this is certainly inspirational, but it is by no means realistic. 

For example, Youngkin has promised Dominion a small modular reactor. China and Russia are the only places with SMRs as of now, and when Utah tried to build one, the costs soared to $10 billion, leading to the scrap of the project. SMRs are certainly innovative, but they come with an expensive, inherent risk of failure — something that Youngkin conveniently forgets to mention in his address on the future of Virginian energy. 

Despite risks, Virginia could benefit from more nuclear power plants, but the current proposal that Youngkin advertises hardly achieves its promised benefits, something which could be remedied by being more transparent about the actual benefits. If Youngkin explained the potential downsides of the new plants, he could ease concerns that the project is not feasible. Indeed, nuclear power can be a sustainable solution in Northern Virginia, especially in a time when Artificial Intelligence calls for more power than ever. However, taxpayers have a right to know the full details of the projects their government is approving. Mr. Burns from “The Simpsons” may be secretive about the operation of his nuclear power plant, but Youngkin need not, nay, should not be.

Paul Kurtzweil is a senior associate opinion editor who writes about economics, business and housing for The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at opinion@cavalierdaily.com.

The opinions expressed in this column are not necessarily those of The Cavalier Daily. Columns represent the views of the authors alone

How DeepSeek’s efficient AI could stall the nuclear renaissance


Chinese AI startup DeepSeek stunned the world with the release of its R1 model, which appears to perform nearly as well as leading models from Google and OpenAI, despite the company’s claim that it used a relatively modest number of GPUs to train it.

DeepSeek’s relative efficiency has experts and investors questioning whether AI really needs the massive hardware outlays everyone had been predicting. And that could change data center demand — and the energy needed to power them.

The company claims it ran 2,048 Nvidia H800 GPUs for two months to train a slightly older model, a fraction of the compute that OpenAI is rumored to use. 

Few companies are as exposed as Nvidia, the share price of which was down 16% at the time of publishing. Perhaps even more vulnerable are the startups and power producers that are betting big on new nuclear and natural gas capacity. 

Nuclear power, in particular, has been on the cusp of a renaissance for years, driven by advances in fuel and reactor designs that promise to make a new generation of power plants safer and cheaper to build and operate. Until now, there was little reason to blaze ahead. Nuclear is still expensive relative to wind, solar, and natural gas. Plus, next-generation nuclear has yet to be tested at commercial scale.

The surge in power demand from AI changed the equation. With data centers predicted to consume as much as 12% of all electricity in the U.S. — more than triple their share in 2023 — and forecasts of underpowered AI data centers by 2027, tech companies have been racing to secure new supplies, and throwing billions of dollars at the problem. Google has pledged to buy 500 megawatts of capacity from nuclear startup Kairos, Amazon led a $500 million investment in another nuclear startup, X-Energy, and Microsoft is working with Constellation Energy on a $1.6 billion renovation of a reactor at Three Mile Island.

But what if the problem has been overblown? 

 

There is no hard and fast rule suggesting that the only way to improve AI performance is to use more compute. For a while, that tactic worked well, but more recently, more compute hasn’t yielded the same results. AI researchers have been casting about for solutions, and it’s possible that DeepSeek found one for its R1 model.

Not everyone is convinced, of course.

“While DeepSeek’s achievement could be groundbreaking, we question the notion that its feats were done without the use of advanced GPUs,” Citigroup analyst Atif Malik wrote.

Still, history suggests that even if DeepSeek is hiding something, someone else will probably find a way to make AI cheaper and more efficient. After all, it’s easier and potentially faster to task some PhDs with developing better models than it is to build new power plants. 

The current wave of new reactors aren’t scheduled to come online until 2030, and new natural gas power plants won’t be available until the end of the decade at the soonest. In that context, tech companies’ power investments appear to be hedges in case their software bets don’t pan out. 

If they do, expect tech companies to scale back their power ambitions. When given the choice between spending billions on physical assets or software, tech companies almost always chose the latter.

Where will that leave nuclear startups and energy companies? It depends. Some might be able to produce power at a low enough cost that it won’t matter if AI’s power needs ebb. The world is electrifying, and even before the AI bubble started inflating, demand for electricity was expected to grow.

But absent demand from AI, those cost pressures are probably going to increase. Wind, solar, and batteries are cheap and getting cheaper, and they’re inherently modular and mass-produced. Developers can roll out new renewable plants in phases, delivering electricity (and revenue) before the entire project is complete while offering some control over their future in the face of uncertain demand. The same can’t be said of a nuclear reactor or a gas turbine. Tech companies know this, which is why they’ve been quietly investing in renewables to power their data centers.

Few people predicted the current AI boom, and it’s unlikely that anyone knows how the next five years will play out. As a result, the safer bets in energy will probably flow to proven technologies that can be rapidly deployed and scaled according to a rapidly evolving market. Today, renewables fit that bill. 

S&P 500 nuclear power giants Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) plummeted early Monday as China's private DeepSeek startup shook the markets. DeepSeek released a powerful artificial intelligence program that it claims cost just $5.6 million to build, marking a possible paradigm shift from the massive levels of investment by technology industry giants in energy and AI infrastructure.
 
Nuclear stocks swooned Monday during market action, marking a reverse of fortunes compared to last week. The sector had broadly advanced after President Donald Trump's announced Tuesday afternoon that Sam Altman's OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle (ORCL) are planning a joint venture called Stargate, to build data centers and other AI infrastructure in the U.S., with investments of up to $500 billion.

https://www.investors.com/news/sp-500-nuclear-leaders-respond-to-deepseek-ai-goldrush/
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Renewables Leader NextEra Expanding Gas, Nuclear for AI Boom

Josh Saul
 3 min read

In This Article:

(Bloomberg) -- NextEra Energy Inc., one of the world’s biggest suppliers of wind and solar power, is moving to expand its natural gas and nuclear generation in a bid to meet the surging demand for electricity sparked by artificial intelligence.

Most Read from Bloomberg

The company has partnered with gas turbine manufacturer GE Vernova Inc. to build power generation for data centers and factories, Chief Executive Officer John Ketchum said on an earnings call Friday. NextEra has also taken the first step to restarting its shuttered Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa.

US power consumption is rising, driven by data centers and AI, along with manufacturing and the increasing electrification of the economy. That’s spurred demand for new gas plants and reawakened interest in nuclear energy. The electricity boom has sparked new ideas and deals that would once have been unthinkable.

“We’re already having a lot of success with renewables, but let’s capitalize on the need for capacity and gas generation,” Ketchum said in an interview. By partnering with GE Vernova, “we can find multi-gigawatt solutions for these customers, not just gas but combined with renewable solutions,” he said.

Ketchum also said that strategy will be helped by the Trump administration’s strong support for gas power.


NextEra shares gained as much as 5.8% in New York. The company also owns Florida Power & Light, one of the largest US utilities.

“It can’t be underestimated how much this industry has changed in a very short amount of time, really the last 15 months to 18 months,” Rebecca Kujawa, head of subsidiary NextEra Energy Resources, said on the call. “We’ve seen a lot of increase in demand for natural gas.”

GE Vernova has said data centers favor gas over intermittent renewable sources like wind because the facilities require power around the clock. Scott Strazik, GE Vernova’s CEO, said this week that orders for gas turbines more than doubled to 20 gigawatts last year and he expects 2025 to be even stronger.

NextEra has asked US regulators for a licensing change for the Duane Arnold nuclear plant, a first step toward potentially restarting the Iowa facility.

NextEra aims to get the reactor up and running again as early as the end of 2028, it said Friday in an earnings release. “This is much faster than we and investors we speak to expect,” Jefferies LLC analysts led by Julien Dumoulin-Smith said in a note.
 

The request was filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Thursday, according to a company representative. NextEra had previously said it was interested in reviving the plant.

NextEra is not the only company pursuing efforts to revive reactors. South Carolina utility Santee Cooper said Wednesday it’s seeking bids to restart construction of two reactors at the V.C. Summer Nuclear Station. And in September, NextEra rival Constellation Energy Corp. announced plans to restart a reactor at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania to supply Microsoft Corp.

The 600-megawatt Duane Arnold plant closed in 2020 after its biggest customer decided to exit its power-purchase agreement. The facility was also damaged in a windstorm that same year, prompting the company to close the plant two months earlier than planned.

NextEra has said Duane Arnold, which went into service in 1974, uses less-complex technology that may make it easier to revive than newer nuclear plants. But Jefferies & Co. analyst Julian Dumoulin-Smith has said bringing the facility back into service would be costly and there’s no guarantee the economics would be justified.

(Updates with comment from CEO in fourth paragraph, comment from analyst in 10th paragraph.)

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Trump's attack on Biden's IRA spending raises could complicate Palisades restart effort

TOM HENRY
The Blade
 
Jan 23, 2025
 
President Trump’s freeze on Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act spending has, if nothing else, caused some confusion about the future of the historic Palisades nuclear plant restart effort and its ability to remain on the schedule outlined by its owner, Holtec International.
 
The cornerstone of the unprecedented project is a $1.52 billion loan agreement the U.S. Department of Energy finalized in September with Holtec.
 
The DOE money for that loan is coming from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, distributions from which Trump has frozen through an executive order. He also has ordered unspent money to be returned.
 
The IRA has been called America’s largest single investment in fighting climate change. Trump opposes it because, as a matter of policy, he doesn’t want to spend money on climate change projects.
 
“I definitely think it's causing confusion, without knowing exactly how the deal is structured,” said Edwin Lyman, director of Nuclear Power Safety for the Cambridge, Mass.-based Union of Concerned Scientists. “I think it depends on the project. At the minimum, it's confusing.” 
 
For now, oil and natural gas drilling “will be king” under Trump, Mr. Lyman said.
 
The Nuclear Energy Institute, the nuclear industry’s chief lobbyist group on Capitol Hill, has in recent years rebranded the nuclear industry as a leading strategy for reducing climate-altering carbon dioxide emissions.
 
“The nuclear industry has been very successful in converting Democrats,” Mr. Lyman said. “That could backfire.”
 
But Nick Culp, Holtec Palisades senior manager of government affairs and communications, told The Blade he’s confident the project will remain on schedule and the DOE loan will be unharmed because of Trump’s general support of nuclear power as an energy source.
 
 
“We're very confident, based on the very strong support we're hearing from the President and his nominees,” Mr. Culp said. “We feel very confident the support will be there and there will be a place in which Palisades fits with America's energy agenda.”
 
Holtec, which has never operated a nuclear plant, is trying to make Palisades the first nuclear plant in American history to go back online after it has been mothballed and put into its decommissioning phase.
 
The plant ceased operations in May of 2022 when its previous owner, Entergy, said it was doing so permanently for economic reasons.
 
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been a strong supporter of the potential restart, calling the project an important part of her MI Healthy Climate Plan, which sets deadlines for the state to reduce its carbon emissions.
 
“We are reviewing. Thank you,” was the only statement received by The Blade from Ms. Whitmer’s office when asked for a comment about Trump’s executive order.
 
An online request for comment was submitted to White House communications, which acknowledged receipt but gave no immediate response.
 
“It’s certainly going to be disruptive,” Alan Blind, a retired nuclear power executive who once spent nearly seven years as the Palisades engineering director, said of Trump’s executive order.
 
While it’s possible the contract in place with the DOE will hold, even if all $1.52 billion hasn’t been distributed yet, that wouldn’t necessarily be the case if Holtec is found to be in violation of it.
 
He said there are multiple issues, one of the largest being the condition of the Palisades steam generator tubes.
 
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission verified at a recent meeting that steam generator tubes went two years before they were laid up in a wet chemical process that was supposed to be done immediately after shutdown if the goal was to preserve them for additional usage. That protocol is an industry standard supported by California-based EPRI, a consulting group the nuclear industry often relies upon.
 
Mr. Culp said the extent of damage of steam generator tubes was simply part of the inspection process. He did not respond when asked why it took so long to store them in the wet chemical process.
 
Kevin Kamps, an activist with Maryland-based Beyond Nuclear who grew up near the plant, said that safety assurances are “very dubious, as [the] NRC is completely captured by the industry it is supposed to regulate.”
 
The NRC has said multiple times, including recently, that it will not authorize restart unless it is convinced it is safe to do so.
 
The government regulator also reminded Holtec and its contractors during a public meeting at the NRCs national headquarters in Rockville, Md., last week that it is not beholden to the company’s timetable.
 
Mr. Culp told The Blade that Holtec is still eyeing restart for the fourth quarter of this year, despite issues raised by Trump’s executive order.
 
First Published January 23, 2025, 10:30 a.m.
 
Tom Henry
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Nuclear Regulatory Commission - News Release
No: 25-004 January 22, 2025
CONTACT: Scott Burnell, 301-415-8200

NRC Atomic Safety and Licensing Board to Hold Oral Argument on Palisades Restart License Amendment Requests


A Nuclear Regulatory Commission Atomic Safety and Licensing Board will conduct an oral argument Feb. 12 on adjudicatory hearing petitions concerning Holtec Decommissioning International, LLC’s, and Holtec Palisades, LLC’s, license amendment requests and an exemption request related to a potential restart of the Palisades Nuclear Plant. Palisades is located in South Haven, Michigan.
 
The oral argument will begin at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It will allow the board to ask questions regarding challenges from two petitioning groups, a group of nine individuals (Joint Petitioners) and a group of five organizations (Petitioning Organizations). The three administrative judges on the board will hear argument from representatives for the petitioning groups, Holtec, and the NRC staff.
 
The proceeding will be in the ASLB’s Hearing Room at NRC headquarters. It will be open for observation in person and via a listen-only telephone line. Those who want to attend in person should use the NRC’s main entrance at 11555 Rockville Pike in Rockville, Maryland, and should arrive by 7:30 a.m. Eastern time to allow time for security screening and escort to the hearing room before the oral argument begins. Visitors must provide a valid government-issued photo ID during the screening process. Signs, banners, displays or other demonstration materials are prohibited in the hearing room.
 
The public may listen to the oral argument by dialing 301-576-2978 and entering passcode 101 394 753#. For additional information please contact Twana Ellis at Twana.Ellis@nrc.gov or 301-415-6094.
 
The board is composed of three administrative judges from the NRC’s Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel. Boards conduct adjudicatory hearings on NRC licensing and enforcement actions, and they are independent of the NRC staff. A board’s rulings may be appealed to the Commission, the five-member body that sets NRC policy.
 
Information on the Palisades restart review is available on the NRC website (click on “Potential Restart”).
 
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has proposed a $9,000 civil penalty against Paramount Builders, Inc. of Pago Pago, American Samoa, for a violation of NRC requirements associated with its use of equipment containing radioactive materials.
 
The violation involved the company’s possession and use of two portable nuclear gauges, although only one was authorized in its NRC license. The devices are used to measure the physical properties of materials, such as soil at construction sites. Companies are required to properly handle and possess radioactive materials in the quantity authorized by their NRC license to protect public health and the environment.
 
The proposed fine stems from an unannounced inspection conducted in February 2024 at the facility, followed by an office review. During the inspection, 10 other violations were identified but were not assessed a civil penalty. All identified violations are documented in the September 2024 inspection report.
 
The NRC issued its decision after reviewing the circumstances surrounding the proposed violation and corrective actions taken by the company.
 
Paramount Builders has 30 days to pay the fine, dispute it, or request involvement from a neutral third-party mediator to resolve the issue.
 
Folks:
 
This was a marathon three hour meeting. Patty
and I spoke at the end of the meeting. 
 
We were not well received, and the Secretary of DEP 
did not accept our testimony when I offered her a copy.
She was not present when we spoke. Patty was able to
talk to her outside of the meeting. The CAC does not 
entertain questions from the  public were entertained 
during the meeting. They do limit public comment
To five minutes.
 
The Council is chaired by Bob Barkanic, a former
employee of TMI and PPL, and former DEP Secretary.
It’s hard to gauge the “room”, since most folks were 
Remote. There were several questions data centers
supplied by “clean energy.,”, and no questions for
TMI.
 
TMI-2 Solutions presentation was generic, and one
of the presenters actually left the meeting. The PUC 
was another story.
 
The vice-chairwoman  of the PA PUC spoke,
and gushed over TMI telling the panel it was a win,
win for everyone. “I was really happy to see the deal…
I  love to see it.. It does take some stress out of our
system." [It does nothing to alleviate the stress,
nd the PUC has to weigh in on the Constellation
merger with Calpine.
 
The SRBC appears to be a more difficult venue.
TMIA will file testimony at the end of the month
on the Susquehanna plant. Constellation has not 
filed, but the Governor is inactively supporting 
both cases at FERC and at PJM.
 
Best,
 
Eric
 
I wrote this two years ago about Natrium.  Bill Gates' dumb climate idea - Climate and Capital Media
 
 
 
 
 
nuclear-climate-capital-media-voices-1.jpg
 

 

 

Bill Gates’ Terrapower permitted to unleash 345 MW sodium-cooled nuclear reactor

TerraPower claims that its Natrium technology is one of the fastest and lowest-cost paths to advanced, zero-carbon energy.

Updated: Jan 15, 2025 07:00 AM EST

Photo of the Author Abhishek Bhardwaj

Abhishek Bhardwaj

Bill Gates’ Terrapower permitted to unleash 345 MW sodium-cooled nuclear reactor

TerraPower's Natrium reactor and energy storage system.

Terrapower

Bill Gates-backed nuclear energy firm Terrapower announced that it has received approval from the Wyoming Industrial Siting Council (ISC) on its permit for the first Natrium plant, Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1.

The approval will allow for the construction of non-nuclear facilities – including the energy island portion that houses the molten-salt energy storage tanks and turbines – of the Natrium plant.

The Natrium technology features an advanced nuclear design with a 345 MW sodium-cooled fast reactor with a gigawatt-scale molten salt-based energy storage system. 

[More...]

Read full article here: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/terrapower-approval-wyoming-nuclear-plant

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